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| #1024336 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:50 AM 08.Nov.2020) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island. Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it emerges off the north coast of Cuba. Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
