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| #10250 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 26.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF JEANNE IS NOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN SEBRING AND VERO BEACH...AND IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT LESS DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 100-115 KT MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOW STARTING TO DIMINISH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT...WHICH MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JEANNE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD TURN WITHIN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE NOGAPS REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST...TAKING JEANNE ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...TAKING JEANNE NORTHWARD THROUGH GAINESVILLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO PASS NEAR TAMPA THEN BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER APALACHEE BAY BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC. JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE IT MAY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN IS NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY STILL BE A HURRICANE AT CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE TAMPA AREA. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES BRING JEANNE OVER APALACHEE BAY...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERE IS ONLY 26C...AND WITH MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STILL OVER LAND THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE POOR. JEANNE WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN IS FORECATS TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 120 HR. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR 100 MILES OR MORE INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 27.4N 81.1W 95 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 28.1N 82.4W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/0600Z 29.7N 83.6W 55 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 27/1800Z 31.8N 83.9W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 29/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 30/0600Z 42.0N 64.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 52.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
