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| #1025031 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:44 PM 12.Nov.2020) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band located well east of the center. The circulation has also become more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary on Friday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday. Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
