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| #1025214 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:44 PM 13.Nov.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 74.2W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of that area on Saturday. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 74.2 West. Iota is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Across Honduras and northern Nicaragua: 8 to 16 inches or 200 to 400 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches or 500 mm. Across Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia, southern Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador: 3 to 6 inches or 75 to 150 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches or 250 mm. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
