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| #1025251 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 14.Nov.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 74.8W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
