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| #1025405 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 15.Nov.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 77.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 77.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night. Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
