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| #1025737 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 17.Nov.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that`s been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta`s destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
