Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #10324 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 26.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 THE EYE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTWESTWARD...290/9...OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND IS NEARING THE TAMPA BAY AREA. WSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CENTER WILL PROBABLY MOVE JUST SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA UPPER WEST COAST THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH OVER THE WATER TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JEANNE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 2-3 DAYS...AND ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER. JEANNE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 27.9N 82.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.0W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/1200Z 30.8N 83.8W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/0000Z 33.1N 83.2W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/1200Z 35.6N 80.4W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 29/1200Z 40.5N 71.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 30/1200Z 44.0N 60.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/1200Z 48.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
