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| #10325 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 26.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND 1.6 MICRON NEAR-INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY GIVE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT POSITION LOCATION FOR LISA. THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A PORTION OF THE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE SPLIT BETWEEN 55 KTS AND 45 KTS...SO FOR THIS ADVISORY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED TO 50 KTS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/7. LISA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LEAVE LISA BEHIND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE WEST AND LISA STAYS EAST OF OF A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A CONTINUAL NORTHWEST TRACK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE ARE MOSTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF LISA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST ADJUSTMENT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR LISA REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SYSTEM UP TO 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR INDICATED BY SHIPS DOES DIMINISH AND SHOULD ALLOW LISA TO DEVELOP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS LISA TO 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 19.0N 46.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 20.3N 46.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 21.8N 47.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 23.1N 48.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 24.5N 49.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 26.5N 50.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 29.5N 51.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 32.5N 53.0W 65 KT |
