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| #10394 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 26.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER LAND AND PEAK DOPPLER VELOCITIES/VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D RADAR SUGGESTED 55-60 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20Z AND THE 21Z ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. THE RADAR PRESENTATION IS SLOWLY DETERIORATING...BUT JEANNE STILL HAS A LARGE AND STRONG WIND CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS TOLL AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DROP BELOW STORM STRENGTH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT DAY 3. JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS 4-5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED AND SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT JEANNE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MIGHT NOT ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS EARLIER INDICATED. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PARTIALLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...SLOW SOMEWHAT...AND START MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 28.8N 82.6W 55 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 83.3W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/1800Z 31.9N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/0600Z 34.2N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/1800Z 36.5N 78.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 29/1800Z 40.5N 69.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 30/1800Z 43.0N 60.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/1800Z 44.0N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
