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| #10471 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 26.Sep.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004 0300Z MON SEP 27 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 46.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.8N 46.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.4N 47.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 49.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 31.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 46.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART |
