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| #10476 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 PM 26.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE TAMPA...TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE... AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D RADARS...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... INDICATE JEANNE REMAINS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ON BOTH FLORIDA COASTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ERODING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SQUALLY RAINBANDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND IT SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...OF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...JEANNE SHOULD GRADUALLY ROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. AFTER THAT... A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD CAPTURE JEANNE AND TURN THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES AREA. TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 96 HOURS....WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 29.9N 82.8W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 27/1200Z 31.6N 82.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/1200Z 35.5N 80.2W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/0000Z 37.7N 75.8W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0000Z 41.0N 66.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0000Z 44.0N 47.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
