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| #1048772 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 14.Jun.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of shear. However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a tropical storm. None of the conventional intensity estimates, however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time over marginally warm water to intensify. Afterwards, the cyclone should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical low, and dissipate near Newfoundland. This forecast is somewhat higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to doing. The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little slower than before. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next day or two. The northeastward track is forecast to continue until the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The model guidance has shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track prediction is shifted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 35.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
