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| #1049680 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 20.Jun.2021) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette`s circulation has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the trends of the various global models. The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the central and eastern Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
