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| #1051254 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 02.Jul.2021) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ELSA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 65.1W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada And Its Dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 65.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northern Leeward Islands for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, this evening. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall with decrease across this area by early Saturday morning. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected tonight into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin |
