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| #1051269 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 02.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 66.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN |
