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| #1051548 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 04.Jul.2021) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...LANDFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 79.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Cuban provinces of Granma and Las Tunas, and the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holquin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Camaguey A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 79.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected through tonight. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba tonight into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
