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| #1052492 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 09.Jul.2021) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 71.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of Long Island and the coast of New England west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80 km/h). A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the Nantucket Airport. NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid- afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky |
