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| #1056708 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 13.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 ...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 50.3W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 50.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system remains an open wave but maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
