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| #1056836 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 14.Aug.2021) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 83.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of this area later in the weekend. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
