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| #1056941 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 15.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 63.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 63.7 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, near or over the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and then move near or over Haiti Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could affect portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto |
