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| #1057177 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 16.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 70.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are likely later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
