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| #1057601 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 18.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THAT AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 85.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm Watch from the coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general west- northwestward to westward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during the next six to twelve hours, move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland the Yucatan Peninsula during the day Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
