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| #1057762 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 19.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 91.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength on Friday. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible into early Friday morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
