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| #1057826 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 20.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND GRACE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 93.7W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 93.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. More strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (50 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure of 983 mb (29.03 inches) is based on data collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi |
