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| #105836 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 24.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON 45 KT VECTORS IN RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA...ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS DEBBY MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS DIVERGING. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...BUT THE GFDL MODEL STILL FORECASTS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. I SUSPECT THE GFDL IS UNDERPLAYING THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING OR TRACK FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEBBY MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A RECURVATURE TRACK...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT RATES...IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AS WELL AS THE GUNA AND FSU CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.4N 37.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.4N 40.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.6N 43.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.8N 45.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 48.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 28.5N 50.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 31.5N 50.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 48.0W 65 KT |
