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| #1058826 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 27.Aug.2021) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 81.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
