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| #1059431 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 AM 30.Aug.2021) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 90.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF GREENSBURG LOUISIANA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and satellite data near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow station in Mandeville, Louisiana. Along the Gulf coast, a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through today. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast today and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through this morning over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama later today. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates are being discontinued after the 100 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
