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| #106056 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:17 AM 25.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING THE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25 AND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37 KT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40 KT VECTORS. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE SHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES. THE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.9N 43.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 25.3N 45.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 27.2N 47.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 49.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.2N 49.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1200Z 48.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
