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| #1061096 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 10.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during the next few hours as the center makes landfall. After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over the Labrador Sea. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its northwest. Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial motion of 030/41. This general motion should continue until Larry merges with the other low pressure area. The new official forecast track is little changed from the previous track and is in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance models. Key Messages: 1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 46.8N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 51.9N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0000Z 56.8N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
