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| #106115 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:17 PM 25.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND A NOAA P-3 FLYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KT WITHIN THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL HOLD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH MAINTAINS 35 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3...THEN ULTIMATELY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/15. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT DEBBY WILL MOVE BENEATH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST... FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.9N 44.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 46.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 28.2N 48.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 30.3N 49.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 32.7N 48.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1800Z 39.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
