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| #106203 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 26.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT DEBBY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION... THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT DEBBY IS LOOKING LESS TROPICAL THAN EARLIER WITH ONLY SCANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL NORTHWARD OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE DEBBY IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DEBBY COULD EITHER BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU... OR A REMNANT LOW IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. SOME EXTRATROPICAL RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN LINE WITH A FEW GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS... THOUGH THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN. DEBBY IS HEADING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING... 290/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH UNTIL IT FINDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE... EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING IN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAK CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.3N 46.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 26.4N 48.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 28.6N 49.1W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 27/1800Z 31.5N 48.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/0600Z 34.5N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/0600Z...ABSORBED |
