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| #10621 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:17 AM 27.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004 JEANNE HAS JUST A FEW SPOTS OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO CARRY IT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE. IT WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS...SO AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT THE NEXT REGULAR PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL VERY LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT THIS TIME...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BAROCLINICITY AND SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF JEANNE A FEW DAYS FROM NOW...SO THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER IT MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION ALONG WITH AN INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE EXCEPT TO KEEP JEANNE ALIVE THROUGH 120 HOURS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 31.6N 83.9W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 28/0000Z 32.9N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 28/1200Z 34.8N 81.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/0000Z 36.3N 78.2W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1200Z 37.0N 74.4W 30 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 30/1200Z 38.0N 67.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 38.5N 62.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
