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| #106249 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 26.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING APPROXIMATELY 150 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER...A PRODUCT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY WILL THEN ULTIMATELY BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEBBY IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/7. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT DEBBY WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UKMET INDICATES A INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND ECMWF REVEAL A MORE RAPID ABSORPTION PHASE...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE. DEBBY SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS DEBBY COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.6N 47.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 26.7N 48.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/1200Z 29.5N 49.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
