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| #1062762 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 22.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system`s east side. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual weakening seems likely. Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold on to the system for a while longer. The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough. The models are in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 23.4N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
