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| #1062928 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 23.Sep.2021) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Satellite images indicate that the tropical depression has been more or less steady in strength overnight. Curved bands remain most organized to the north and west of the center with some dry air wrapping into the eastern half of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a compromise between the earlier ASCAT data that showed peak winds around 25 kt and 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/13 kt. The cyclone is located on the south side of a mid-level ridge, and that should continue to steer the system westward but at a slightly slower pace during the next couple of days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift eastward. In response, the depression is forecast to turn west-northwestward to northwestward and slow down some more. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the consensus aids. This forecast is also between the GFS model on the north side of the guidance and the ECMWF on the south side. Environmental conditions all seem to be favorable for the storm to gain strength during the next several days. The cyclone is expected to traverse warm 28 deg C waters and move in an environment of low wind shear (less than 10 kt) and fairly high moisture. Nearly all of the models respond by showing steady strengthening during the next several days, and so does the official forecast. This prediction lies near the IVCN and HCCA aids, which are usually the most skillful. The official forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in a couple of days, and a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. In fact, some of the models suggest that the storm could get even stronger than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.5N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 10.8N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.3N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.9N 43.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 12.5N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 13.7N 48.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 15.0N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 16.9N 53.9W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
