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| #106340 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 26.Aug.2006) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z |
