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| #106373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 27.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 THERE ARE JUST A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF DEBBY. THIS SYSTEM BARELY FITS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED SIX MORE HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT. THIS SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE CURRENT MOTION OF 320/11 SHOULD CHANGE TO DUE NORTH SOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB DEBBY IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD AT FIRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWESTWARD INITIAL MOTION THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 28.6N 49.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 30.5N 49.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 48.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 28/1800Z...ABSORBED |
