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| #1064281 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 02.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data. The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI estimate from 0000 UTC. Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to 28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next week. Victor`s low-level wind field will also continue to spin down over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus aids and deterministic model output. The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a trough in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
