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| #106439 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:17 AM 27.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 A 0912 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT VECTORS ABOUT 110 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AND DEBBY BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...THE LAST ADVISORY COULD BE WRITTEN THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS MORE TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...360/11. THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DEBBY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 29.6N 49.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 32.0N 48.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/1200Z 35.5N 46.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT |
