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| #106455 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 27.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...MAY HAVE WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... RANMA... OLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. |
