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| #106517 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 27.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. |
