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| #106545 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 27.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT. THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID NOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH. IN GENERAL...THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AGGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND BOTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT...JUST WEST OF THE KEYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE REACHING CUBA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA. IN THIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT WELL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.6N 74.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT...INLAND |
