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| #106580 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 28.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA... AT 5 AM...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THIS WATCH BE DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST CUBA LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE WHILE OVER CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. |
