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| #106585 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 28.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTING THE CYCLONE HAS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 48 KT SO FAR...BUT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVER PASS INDICATED HI-RESOLUTION WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS JUST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.6N 75.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 76.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 29/0600Z 22.2N 78.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 23.7N 80.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 25.5N 80.6W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0600Z 29.6N 81.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 32.5N 79.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 36.5N 74.5W 75 KT |
