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| #106649 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 28.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. |
