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| #106650 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 28.Aug.2006) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z |
