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| #106653 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 28.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. SINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF ERNESTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 75.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W 70 KT |
