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| #106717 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 28.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A CENTER. BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...THE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OF THE NORTH COAST. THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED... WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WE EXPECT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT...THE SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ERNESTO TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WARNED AREAS IN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE OTHERS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT OTHERWISE ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL PREDICTION. IN 3-5 DAYS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 21.3N 76.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
