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| #1068421 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021 Wanda`s convective pattern has waned slightly since this afternoon. Earlier there were convective bands noted wrapping around the center, but now the primary band only wraps around the southern and western portions of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates have not changed appreciably since earlier today, and recent scatterometer wind data and UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Wanda is moving northward or 005/08 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged once again. A mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Wanda to move northward for another 6-12 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to lift northward. As subsequent ridging builds behind the trough, Wanda is expected to turn sharply eastward, and then south-southeastward to southward on Friday. Another mid-latitude trough moving across Newfoundland by the weekend should finally cause Wanda to begin to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours. The dynamical model guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the evolution of the steering pattern over the next several days, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Despite Wanda being over 20-21C sea surface temperatures, some cooling aloft is forecast over the next couple of days. That, along with generally favorable upper-level winds could allow for some slight strengthening within the next day or so. The global models indicate that Wanda will merge with a frontal system on Sunday, resulting in the system`s transition into an extratropical low. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 40.6N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 39.0N 37.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 37.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 38.1N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 44.7N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 51.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
